The USD is what I’d call the stress barometer of the San Francisco Giants x Grinch Dr. Seuss How the Grinch Stole Christmas MLB with World Series Trophy Ugly Christmas Sweater Red, and a breakout to the upside is indicative of the stress in the system. Note that this makes sense because when the Fed tapers from bond buying, they are essentially strengthening the dollar. The S&P 500 index is trading at all-time highs because the large and mega-cap names are holding it up, but there is a lot of subsequent carnage (and increasingly so), which is a classic sign we’ve topped off in the market. The M2 money supply peaked in February of 2021, which coincided with the top in the most speculative parts of the market, including SPACs and Cathie Wood’s ARKK. Well, the truth is, the companies whose stocks have overrun have gotten so large in market cap that it’d take them years for them to grow into their respective valuations, so either these companies grow at a much faster pace, which is unlikely, to “catch up” to their stock prices, or their stock prices will have to come down to Earth
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