Sanders is slowly creeping back up Twisted Tea holy enough to pray for you good enough shirt. With 73% in, he is up by 2.0 points and 4200 votes. His largest counties are still missing tons of votes. The largest county in the state, where Sanders is currently up by 3.5 points with 16,000 to Buttigieg’s 14,000, is still waiting on 38% of their vote to come in. Buttigieg has 1 remaining county left with 80% in. It is about 2/3rds the size of Sander’s largest county. And Sanders still has 6 more counties with between 15%-30% of the vote missing. Edit: Buttigieg is the only candidate who is ahead in a county that has 100% of the vote in. He is ahead in 2. Sanders is ahead in 7 and Klobuchar is ahead in 1 very small county.
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Bernie is almost certain to win; that’s good. But he didn’t really beat expectations here and this Twisted Tea holy enough to pray for you good enough shirt will be closer than expected. Buttigieg is going to beat expectations and still well over the polls from a week ago; however, he’s going to come in second, and faces a very steep climb in the near future given his poor showing with minorities. Klobuchar surged enormously, dramatically beating her poll numbers, but still comes in “only” third and also has issues in the next few states. Bernie is still the frontrunner, but all three of these candidates can see upside from tonight. Hard to say how anyone else — save Bloomberg — has a path going forward. This is a knockout punch for Warren and Biden.